Nuts First Practice →

6 of 43

More players, more monsters: the exact odds

Each opponent is an independent draw from the deck. Stack up enough of them and someone always has something. These figures are straight combinatorics:

Chance that at least one opponent was dealt…4-handed (3 opp)8-handed (7 opp)12-handed (11 opp)
a pocket pair17%35%49%
an ace (when you hold none)40%69%84%
a Group A premium (A-A…J-J, A-K)9%19%29%

Read the ace row again, because it decides how you play half your hands. Holding K-Q at a four-handed table, you're the best hand more often than not. Holding that same K-Q at a twelve-handed table, somebody has an ace 84% of the time — you are usually playing a hand that's already behind, hoping to pair up and get lucky.

(These treat each opponent as an independent draw, which is very slightly optimistic; card-removal effects move the true figures by well under a point. Directionally and practically, they're right.)