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Poker hand rankings, in three tiers

Every poker chart lists ten hand ranks. But at the table, they cluster into three groups that behave completely differently, and the probabilities explain why.

These percentages are your odds of ending up with each tier by the river, using all seven cards (your two plus the board's five):

♠ THE HAND RANK CHART ♠

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  TIER 3 — HARD AND RARE           about 0.2% of hands       │
│  (about 1 hand in 500)                                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Royal flush      A-K-Q-J-10, one suit      1 in 30,940     │
│  Straight flush   5 in a row, one suit      1 in 3,590      │
│  Four of a kind   all four 7s               1 in 594        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  TIER 2 — THE BIG-POT HANDS       you'll hold: ~15%         │
│  (about 1 hand in 7)                                        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Full house       three 8s + two 4s         1 in 38         │
│  Flush            any 5 of one suit         1 in 33         │
│  Straight         5 in a row, mixed suits   1 in 22         │
│  Three of a kind  three Queens              1 in 21         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  TIER 1 — COMMON                  85% of hands              │
│  (about 6 hands in 7)                                       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Two pair         K-K and 6-6               1 in 4          │
│  One pair         a pair of Aces            more than       │
│                                             2 in 5          │
│  High card        nothing at all            1 in 6          │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

One note on the royal flush. It is not really a separate hand. A royal flush is simply the highest straight flush — ace down to ten. Charts give it its own row because it is the best hand in poker and deserves the billing, but every scoring system, and the practice app, counts it as a straight flush. So there are nine categories, not ten, and the row above is a courtesy.

What each tier means for how you play

Tier 1 is your home. You will hold two pair or worse about 85% of the time — and so will everyone else. This is the most important fact in the game and the one beginners get exactly backwards. Because everyone lives in Tier 1, one decent pair wins a huge share of pots. You do not wait around for flushes. Top pair with a good side card is a genuinely strong hand at a small-stakes table, and the ♠D gate below is largely about extracting money with exactly that.

The flip side: within Tier 1, the differences are razor thin. A pair of Aces with a King beside it beats a pair of Aces with an 8 beside it. Whole stacks change hands over that side card. That's why the gates spend so much time on it.

Tier 2 is where the big pots go. You'll make one of these about once every seven hands you take to the river. Two consequences. First: when you have one, your job is to get paid — bet it, don't get cute. Second, and this saves you more money: when the board makes a Tier 2 hand possible (three cards of one suit showing, or four cards close in rank) and someone suddenly bets big, believe them. At small stakes, a big bet on a scary board is a Tier 2 hand far more often than it's a bluff. Your beautiful top pair — a Tier 1 hand — goes in the muck.

Tier 3 is a rumor. One hand in five hundred. Never build a plan around making one. Never pay to chase one. If the universe hands you four of a kind, your only problem in life is how to get maximum money in, ideally slowly. Otherwise, forget this tier exists.

The whispered summary: you play in Tier 1, you get paid in Tier 2, and Tier 3 plays itself.